That’s an exaggeration, but the Democratic state’s election for governor has received a lot of attention this fall, and analysts have linked the contest to President Joe Biden’s spending plans and next year’s US midterm elections.
The race will feature Democrat Terry McCorriff, who was Governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018, and Republican Glen Youngkin, who was co-CEO of the private-equity giant Carlyle Group until a year ago.
Polls have been mostly tight these days, with McCorriff just 1.8 percentage points ahead of Yongkin. RealClearPolitics average Of Thursday’s survey. The election day is November 2, but there are weeks of mailing or direct early voting.
Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, said experts are likely to do too much with the outcome of the Virginia Governor’s election. However, following the warning, Mills said:
Emotions that change in this election. “
Mills told MarketWatch that McCorriff’s defeat would boost expectations that the Democratic Party would be sluggish in the 2022 midterm elections. Therefore, top Democrats will feel new pressure to realize part of Biden’s infrastructure plan.
“Because they have this flashing red warning sign,” social spending due to losses in Virginia, he said.
Analysts added that the price tags for these plans are at the lower end of the forecast range and tax increases are likely to reach the lower limit, “this is a plus in the market.” So far, the plan consists of a $ 1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that has already passed the Senate and a democratic social spending package with an estimated price of about $ 2 trillion.
However, following McCorriff’s defeat, “Democratic unity could collapse further as individual members are really concerned about their ability to maintain a majority and want to establish an independent source,” Mills said. Stated. According to Raymond James experts, the story of “confused Democrats” works and market expectations could shift to expecting Congress to probably submit a reduced infrastructure bill. ..
How about the victory of McCorriff?
“Some progressives will be more aggressive in pushing the agenda harder,” Mills said. “The top-line numbers will probably go up a bit, but it will probably take some time to get the final deal because the different factions are discussing each other.”
Democrats could also make some progress on Biden’s agenda before Virginia’s election day, trying to increase opportunities in that state, analysts said.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Political Center, said the Virginia Governor’s election is important because it’s the only competitive big election this year, but “definitely” what will happen in next year’s midterm elections. It’s not “predictive,” he said in an email. ..
After the incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam won the 2017 Virginia Governor’s election, his party took over the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, but in 2014, following McCorriff’s victory in 2013. Republicans regained control of the Senate and maintained control of the House. OK.
In the national midterm elections that take place in a year, the Republicans Aiming for the majority Again in the US House of Representatives and Senate. Betting Market PredictIt Gives Republicans an edge in the last few weeks Just do it In both rooms of Congress.
A key challenge for McCorriff this year, according to Sabbath, was the diminishing Democratic enthusiasm. An expert at the University of Virginia said, “Biden’s status declined in the summer, indicating that the Democratic Party was unable to pass two major bills on infrastructure and social programs (at least so far).” Stated.
Not so Virginia in the race
Anyone who wanted to focus on state auto taxes, congestion along I-66, or other more local subjects in the Virginia Governor’s election was unlucky.
Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia, said: Obligations, vaccination obligations, and national issues dominate. “
Farnsworth said the governor’s election “has less emphasis on Virginia.”
“In addition to COVID, people are talking about the January 6 riots, why Democrats are socialists, police financing, and critical race theory. All over the country a year ago. The hot button issue is another moment in Virginia this fall, “he told Market Watch.
NS New Texas law banning most abortions According to Sarita McCoy Gregory, the state also participates in Virginia’s governor’s elections. She is a political scientist, writer, and executive director of the Crispas Attacks Speaker Series, who chaired the Department of Political Science and History at Hampton University in Hampton, Virginia.
“I think Virginia women are worried that what’s happening in Texas won’t happen here,” Gregory said.
She said Biden’s proposal for infrastructure and social spending was also included in the state’s contest’s most important agenda. It was after Northam, whose predecessor’s favorite current governor was limited to one term, managed to vaccinate people with COVID-19 and managed to keep the school open.
“Everything else is noise and manufactured distractions,” Gregory said.
“Purple-blue” condition and Trump Factor
Virginia wasn’t a fierce battle state in the 2020 presidential election, and Biden won with plenty of time. In addition, today’s Democrats control both the House of Parliament and the Governor’s mansion.
But according to the University of Virginia Sabbath, it’s not a true blue state.
“It’s actually bluish-purple or purplish-blue. Especially in older elections, if the turnout drops significantly, the Republicans can win,” he said.
“Yonkin benefits from the despair of the Republicans,” he added. “Usually, factions are arguing over how many angels can dance with Pin’s head, but this time they know they have to win to survive.”
Mr. Sabbath attacks Yongkin, who has a net worth of hundreds of millions of dollars, because he is free to spend and must consider the records of former President Donald Trump, but he has never run for public office before. He emphasized that he does not have a public record.
Republican governor candidates can’t deny Trump given the overall popularity of the former president among GOP voters, but when fully embraced, they “never Trump” with some independent voters. Republicans may be turned off.
“Yonkin has never really solved his Trump problem,” Sabbath said. “It is clear that he is very clever when the subject is raised.”
Virginia Governor’s race could give Democrats a “blinking red warning sign” and change market sentiment
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