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    UK study suggests COVID-19 became much more lethal in late 2020

    The deterministic trajectories of the various model variants are displayed with the data (black). Models with unchanged mortality rate (IFR) are shown with a dashed line, and models with changed IFR are shown with a solid line. Credits: Pietzonka et al. , 2021, PLOS ONE, CC-BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

    While the new statistical analysis supports the belief that COVID-19 became more deadly in the UK in late 2020, it is due to multiple factors, not just the alpha mutant of the virus that causes COVID-19. Also suggests. Patrick Pietzonka and colleagues at the University of Cambridge, UK, have published these findings in an open access journal. PLOS ONE November 24, 2021.

    Studying how the lethality of COVID-19 has changed over time in different regions may help guide ongoing efforts to combat the disease. A simple and preliminary assessment of infection and mortality data suggests that COVID-19 may have become more deadly in the UK in late 2020, but lacks more rigorous analysis. increase.

    To investigate whether COVID-19 would actually be even more deadly in late 2020, Pietzonka et al. Adopted a statistical approach known as Bayesian inference. This allowed us to draw statistically strong conclusions about lethality from weekly data on the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the United Kingdom. Specifically, Bayesian inference was used to compare predictions from various mathematical simulations of COVID-19 infection. Deaths, some of which incorporated increased case fatality.

    This analysis suggests that in the late fall of 2020 in the United Kingdom, COVID-19 actually became more deadly, increasing the likelihood that infected people would die of the disease.

    Previous speculation suggests that this lethal increase was caused by an alpha variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (B.1.1.7). It was more infectious than the variants previously widespread in the UK. However, new analysis suggests increased lethality.To a greater extent than the alpha variant explains, the increase in lethality began before alpha. Mutant It became popular.

    The results of these surveys are Alpha variant It contributed to the increase in lethality in the second half of 2020, and other factors were also involved. Further research is needed to identify these factors, but the authors Healthcare services Seasonal — A seasonal cycle of viral severity commonly found in other respiratory illnesses such as colds and flu.


    SARS-CoV-2 mutant detected in dogs and cats with suspected myocarditis


    For more information:
    Pietzonka P, Brorson E, Bankes W, Cates ME, Jack RL, Adhikari R (2021) Bayesian inference across multiple models suggests a significant increase in the lethality of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom in late 2020. increase. PLoS ONE 16 (11): e0258968. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258968

    Quote: According to a UK study, COVID-19 will be much more deadly in late 2020 (November 24, 2021) and on November 24, 2021 https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11 Obtained from -uk-covid-lethal-late.html.

    This document is subject to copyright. No part may be reproduced without written permission, except for fair transactions for personal investigation or research purposes. Content is provided for informational purposes only.

    UK study suggests COVID-19 became much more lethal in late 2020 Source link UK study suggests COVID-19 became much more lethal in late 2020

    The post UK study suggests COVID-19 became much more lethal in late 2020 appeared first on California News Times.

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