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    Study suggests R rate for tracking pandemic should be dropped in favour of ‘nowcasts’

    Credit: CC0 public domain

    When the COVID-19 pandemic occurred in 2020, the R rate became a well-known shorthand for disease reproduction. However, new studies suggest that the time has come for “A Farewell to R,” which favors another approach based on infection growth rather than infectivity.

    NS studyPublished in Royal Society Interface Journal It is based on a time series model led by researchers at the University of Cambridge and developed using classical statistical methods. The model has already been shown to be successful in predicting new COVID-19 waves and spikes in Germany, Florida, and several states in India, the number of new cases and deaths per day. Generates nowcasts and predictions for.

    This study is chronologically co-authored by Andrew Harvey and Paul Kattuman. model Last year, reflecting the trendy trajectory known as the Harvey-Kattuman model paper Was announced in Harvard Data Science Review..

    “As soon as the pandemic begins, the usefulness of the basic R rate diminishes rapidly,” said Kattmann of the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. “The basic R rate looks at the number of infections expected to result from a single infected person in a fully susceptible population, which boosts immunity and imposes measures such as social distance. It changes as you go. “

    Later in the pandemic, researchers conclude that using an effective R rate that takes these factors into account is also not the best option. The focus should be on the rate of increase in new cases and mortality, not infectious. Examine with the predicted time path so that the trajectory can be predicted.

    “These are really helpful numbers to guide policy makers in making important decisions to save lives and prevent overcrowded hospitals in the event of a pandemic. This is as we saw in COVID-19. It can occur over months to years, “said Katuman. “The data generated through this time series model has already proven to be accurate and effective in countries around the world.”

    The study looks at waves and spikes in epidemic tracking, and after the epidemic peaks, policymakers are trying to prevent new spikes from turning into waves, and daily cases are beginning to decline. I am paying attention to. Wave and spike monitoring causes a variety of problems because waves are primarily applied to the entire country or relatively large geographic areas, whereas spikes are local.

    Therefore, a localized outbreak in a country with a low number of infections could lead to a sharp rise in the country’s R rate, as it occurred in the Westfalia region of Germany in June 2020 after an outbreak at a meat processing plant. There is sex. However, this type of jump does not indicate a sudden change in the way the infection spreads, so it has little impact on the overall policy.

    The Harvey-Kattuman model fits two trackers. Two Cambridge scholars have worked with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to create a bi-weekly UK tracker by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. In addition, we are creating an Indian tracker published by the Health Leadership and Excellence Center at the Cambridge Judge Business School.District level Pandemic Orbital forecasting using this model is used by public health policy makers in three Indian states (Punjab, Tamirnadu and Kerala) to identify high-risk areas and develop containment and mitigation policies. ..


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    For more information:
    Farewell to R: A time series model for tracking and predicting epidemics, Royal Society Interface Journal (2021). royalsocietypublishing.org/rsi… .1098 / rsif.2021.0179

    Quote: According to a survey, the R rate for tracking pandemics is “nowcasts” obtained from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-09-tracking-pandemic-favour-nowcasts on September 28, 2021. (September 28, 2021) should be prioritized and deleted. html

    This document is subject to copyright. No part may be reproduced without written permission, except for fair transactions for personal investigation or research purposes. The content is provided for informational purposes only.

    Study suggests R rate for tracking pandemic should be dropped in favour of ‘nowcasts’ Source link Study suggests R rate for tracking pandemic should be dropped in favour of ‘nowcasts’

    The post Study suggests R rate for tracking pandemic should be dropped in favour of ‘nowcasts’ appeared first on California News Times.

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