On November 28, 2020, a person with a shopping bag is wearing a face mask at Columbus Circle, New York City.
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According to the National Retail Federation, holiday sales can exceed the most rosy expectations of major shopping seasons.
Jack Kleingenz, an economist at a major trade group, said spending in November and December could increase by 11.5% year-on-year, compared to the same period last year. This is higher than many retail analysts and the NRF itself expected.
NRF is already Record holiday season, Sales in late October 8.5% and 10.5% from last year. The group said it expects November and December sales to reach a record high of $ 834.4 billion to $ 859 billion. Forecasts do not include spending at car dealers, gas stations, or restaurants.
According to the NRF, last year’s holiday season sales increased 8.2% from 2019 to a record $ 777.3 billion.
“I think people have the ability to spend and they feel like spending,” Kleingents said in an interview. He pointed out a strong balance sheet from the pandemic, low unemployment, and a desire to meet again for a holiday gathering.
Kleingents acknowledged uncertainties about how consumers react to variants of Omicron, whether it can change the way they shop, celebrate, and buy.
“There is no crystal ball that provides a definitive answer, but the latest data are promising and provide useful insights,” he said in a news release. “In fact, the season can be better than expected.”
So far this holiday season There were different rhythms and unique challenges.. Shoppers began buying gifts early because of concerns about product availability and delivery delays. Retailers worked to keep goods moving amid a crowded port and a shortage of truck drivers.And the soaring prices of everything from materials to fuels are what consumers Find great deals online or in stores..
It hastened a lot of spending in October and early November, Steal some of the thunder from major shopping holidays such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. According to the NRF, during the extended Thanksgiving weekend, the total number of shoppers and average spending have declined compared to each of the last two years.
Kleingents said shoppers believe they will continue to spend even if they have already bought a lot of gifts. “Looking at what happened last November, it was early October and it was a very strong November,” he said. “People are habitual creatures. There is still a lot of time between now and the holidays.”
Inflation is at least part of this season’s sales, and prices for many gift items, from toys to electronics, are rising.Retailers including Macy’s When ColesAlso talked about having Decrease in inventory and increase in consumer demand —In other words, you can sell more products at regular prices, and few will reach a discount rack.
In a phone call last week, NRF CEO Matt Shay said Omicron could actually boost retail sales for the holiday.Instead of booking a trip or buying a gift card for Spa Day, he said Some of that empirical spending may go back to merchandise.
Spending set to break past records, says NRF
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