NST 6 pm on September 26, the Atrium of Willy Brandt House, the Berlin headquarters of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), The exit poll erupted with cheers when it suggested that it had won the national federal elections. If the victory was narrow, it was too sweet. Opinion polls have been sluggish for a long time, SPD The surge in the second half reached 25.7% of the votes, and the conservative rival Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). Olaf Scholz, SPDVoters are candidates to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel CDU/CSU It “should no longer be in government, but in opposition.”
Mr. Scholz’s emphasis was appropriate. If there was no clear winner in this election, there would obviously be a loser. At Konrad Adenauer House CDUThe nerve center of the body, the mood was extremely dark.in the case of CDU/CSU Despite slightly above the worst vote predictions, conservatives still fell into the worst election results in history, losing about 4.1 million votes and a whopping 8.9 percentage points since Merkel’s fourth and final victory in 2017. .. The prime minister, who will be in charge until the coalition is formed, will resign with a high approval rate. But her party is tattered.
NS CDU Abused in most of the country, with a particularly disastrous performance in the former eastern state East Germany.. Choices for Germany on the far right (NSNSNS) And the Left Party Dailinke.More than 1.3 million voters in exile, concentrated in the elderly SPD..Several CDU Ministers lost their seats directly (although under the German single-member district proportional representation system, they returned to parliament on a party list). Seats on the Baltic coast vacated by Mrs. Merkel leaving SPD..Annoying for them CDU Members who were dissatisfied with the lukewarm support from the conceptual Bavarian allies, or worse, CSU I lost only one seat compared to CDU49.
Much of the responsibility rests on Armin Laschet’s shoulders. CDU/CSU To fill Mrs. Merkel’s shoes. At the end of the campaign, Rachette relied increasingly on negative messages. CDU/CSU Mr Scholz had to be re-elected to prevent him from inviting the Left to the government with Greens. It’s never completely plausible, but this proposal isn’t tested because the conceptual left-wing system doesn’t enjoy the majority.
NS CDU/CSU There seemed to be no more preparations for the aftermath of the election. Mr. Rachette, Mr. Rachette, Greens and the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), A small liberal outfit as a junior partner (party colors match the island flag). As the scale of defeat sank, he abandoned the suspicious concept and endorsed another. The party that came in second in the German elections often went on to form a government. Still, no one suffered a defeat on the scale he supervised. As some of Rachette’s colleagues pointed out, the party needed better discussions to stay in power.
Dissatisfaction grew rapidly with a conservative rank. There was a call for “personnel consultation”. Code for Mr. Rachette to quit.Potential rebellion against head identity CDU/CSU Parliamentary groups were crushed only by last-minute compromises. And the friction between the sister parties intensified. September 28, Markus Söder, CSU Leaders, who lost Rachette in the civil war over the candidate for prime minister in April, admitted that Scholz was in an “optimal position” to form a coalition.
More than two-thirds of German voters believe that Mr. Rachette should throw towels. His remaining hope, which could shape the decline of the government, is FDP And Greens makes an offer he imagines they can’t refuse. If that fails CDU MP, He will be gone within a month.
In the middle of German magic
Like other European countries, Germany’s vote is fragmented (see Charlemagne). NS SPDThe resurrection cannot hide the long-term decline in the share of votes going to the two big “People’s Party”, from 82% in 1987 to less than 50% this time (see Figure 2). This is why Germany is probably heading for the first three-way coalition since the 1950s. (Continued today CDU/CSU—SPD A “grand coalition” with Mr. Scholz as prime minister is possible, but neither party wants it. ) Completely 40% of voters said they wanted a “fundamental change.”
But unlike many other parts of Europe, fragmentation has not come at the expense of the (wide) center of Germany. NS NSNSNS example CDU The collapse in eastern Germany made it the strongest political party in Saxony and Thuringia (see Figure 3). The Left party got worse and barely rubbed against Congress.On the other hand, the four mainstream parties CDU/CSU, NS SPD, Greens FDP— Holds 85% of the new parliamentary seats, up from 78% in 2017. At least in Germany, the center holds it.
It is also moving to the left. NS SPD And Nature’s coalition partner, Greens, together won 40.5 percent of the votes, up 11 percentage points from 2017, almost everything. CDU/CSU..Conservative block CDU/CSU When FDP Together we took 35.6% of the votes. This shift to the left is one reason for the momentum behind Scholz’s attempt to put together a “traffic light” coalition. SPD With FDP Greens as a junior partner.The other is that the aura of humiliation is now hanging CDU/CSU.. The story is “a simultaneous system of winners”.in the case of FDP Voting in 2017 was almost flat, with a green score of 14.8% being by far the highest in 40 years of history.
Indeed, small political parties are doing so early on. Christian Lindner, at a debate aired on Election Night FDPThe leader said his party would talk to Greens before trying to reach an agreement with any of the larger parties. NS FDP Required for Jamaica or traffic light placement, Greens will win 210 seats in the new Congress. CDU/CSU or SPD.. The joint platform will carry more weight than a typical kingmaker can expect. “This will be eye-level negotiations,” says Green Janos Damen. MP..
Close to FDP-Green Talk calls attention. Both parties must overcome serious political and cultural differences. They are divided on taxation and spending, investment policy, European fiscal rules and more. 2017 was green-FDP The tension that ended Angela Merkel’s desire to form her own Jamaica coalition. Each base hates each other. “”NS..NS..NS.. : Fickden Planetarium (“Fuck the planet”) tweeted former green leader Jurgen Trittin during the campaign.Road to any FDP-The green deal looks rocky.
Still, “rocky roads don’t scare us,” says Alexander Graf Ramsdorf. FDP MP.. “We make good cars in Germany.” Towards the end of the campaign SPDWith the surge in traffic lights, the prospect of a traffic light coalition became apparent, and Lindner adjusted the language accordingly. Green co-leader Robert Habeck, who plays an important role in the talks, told his party colleagues to look for something in common with the Liberal Party rather than winning it. Both economies plan to square a lot of yen, including fudges on tax increases and the creation of out-of-budget vehicles that can increase public investment without violating Germany’s “debt brakes” that limit deficit spending. Is standing up.Line FDP..
In addition, both parties, which have won almost half of the first-time voters, can present a credible story of change. This could be a support for projects such as improving Germany’s fraudulent digital infrastructure, reforming education, and streamlining planning procedures. Immediately after September 28 CDU/CSU MPRachette’s future with Green FDP Leaders surprised everyone, including colleagues, by posting Instagram selfies with serious captions about “commonality.” The signal was clear: new guards are working on the job while others are fighting.
NS FDP-According to insiders, Green Talk isn’t just about building detailed policies, it’s about building trust. The allocation of ministerial work is much smaller, a complex business that tends to occur at the end of coalition negotiations. Scholz, who cannot fly, is pleased to learn that his potential partner will work with him before he begins negotiations with his team.Even if Mr. Rachette is a dead man walking, so far Green FDP Exclude the Jamaica Coalition. By doing so, Mr. Scholz’s bargaining power will increase immediately.Besides, there is that tweet CDU/CSU It is possible that Mr. Rachette will leave his seat and try to approach a smaller party with another candidate.
Still there is momentum SPD.. The official hopes to begin traffic congestion negotiations by mid-October and achieve Mr. Scholz’s goal of completing the government by Christmas. NSJanuary 7 Presidents. There is nothing for sure. NS FDP And Greens may not be able to reach an agreement, and for now CDU/CSU Sticking to the hope of being in office. But the stars are lined up for Mr Scholz. ■■
This article was published in the printed European section under the heading “Advantage Scholz”.
Social Democratic Party is likely to be in charge of Germany
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