Delegations from the United States, NATO and other international partners will meet abroad this week for several rounds of high-stakes diplomatic negotiations with Russia. Moscow continues to build military power and other precarious activities near the border...
Over the past few months, Russia hasWith more than 100,000 troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, US officials have launched an offensive influence campaign. That action has raised concerns between Western and Ukrainian officials that an invasion could occur soon this month.
US, G7, NATO, European Union respectivelyFor the invasion of Russia. The United States also said it would continue to strengthen Ukraine’s military defenses and NATO would move to strengthen its eastern side.
Who will meet where?
This week, three different groups will meet on different days in Geneva, Switzerland, Brussels, Belgium, and Vienna, Austria. Each session is expected to focus on different security issues, but there may be some overlap between them.
- Monday, January 10-Strategic Stability Dialogue: In Geneva on Monday, a US delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will meet bilaterally with Russian responders at a forum called the Strategic Stability Dialogue (SSD).
SSDs focus on arms control and the prevention of nuclear war, with recent meetings in July and September. Reopened in June following the Presidential Summit in Geneva, President Biden and Putin agreed that they could “can’t win and never fight” the nuclear war.
- Wednesday, January 12 – NATO-Russian Council Meeting: All 30 representatives of the NATO alliance and Russian envoys will meet at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels. Deputy Secretary Sherman will also lead a US delegation to this conference.
The NATO-Russian Council was established in 2002 as a forum for information exchange between the Security Alliance and Moscow, but its work was severely suspended after Russia annexed Crimea illegally in 2014. rice field.Stagnant since July 2019 as relations worsen-further nervous in October 2021 after NATO What it said was eight undeclared Russian intelligence agents.
- Thursday, January 13 – OSCE Standing Board Meeting: The OSCE representative will hold a conference in Vienna, Austria. The United States is represented by Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, and Ambassador Michael Carpenter, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Arms Control and then Vice President Biden’s Foreign Policy Advisor.
OSCE, which stands for “Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe,” is a group of 57 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and North America that tackle a wide range of security issues such as arms control, conflict resolution, counterterrorism, and counterterrorism. Other areas. Founded in Helsinki, Finland in the 1970s, this group was originally founded to promote east-west dialogue and includes Russia as a member.
According to State Department information, Deputy Secretary of State Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov met in Geneva on Sunday night to discuss Monday and topics to be addressed in the coming days.
Finally, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stortenberg will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at a NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting in Brussels on Monday.
Will President Biden and Putin get involved?
No, the president has no plans to attend any of the meetings next week. Their last direct contact was a phone call made at Mr Putin’s request on December 31, 2021.
What kind of problem do you deal with?
The issues addressed will vary from forum to forum. The agenda has not been published.
The first bilateral meeting on January 10 is expected to focus on arms control issues, from traditional nuclear weapons to non-traditional weapons such as hypersonic weapons, space and cyber technology. ..
On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there “may be grounds” for renewing the treaty with Russia, which governs the deployment of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces in Europe.Trump administration, Quoted repeated violations by Russia.
Blinken also said the United States is ready to tackle the “scope and scale” of military exercises in Europe, subject to Russian round trips. However, he said, no reduction in unit level was taken into account.
On Wednesday, the NATO-Russia Council is expected to address some of Russia’s public demands, including security from the alliance that Russia will not expand eastward. NATO Secretary-General Jason Stoltenberg has already stated that only the alliance will decide to join in the future.
U.S. officials have consistently said that the United States is in close coordination with its allies on the agenda of each session, emphasizing the phrase “nothing about you without you” and security without European allies, including Ukraine. Emphasizes that no discussion will take place, now.
In a statement at the State Department on Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine’s security was the “front line” of all talks.
“We emphasize that in all of these forums, attacks on Ukraine … face large consequences,” he said.
What do Russians want?
Last month, Russians..
They include, among other things, the commitment that Ukraine will never participate in NATO. In countries that have joined the alliance since 1997, military weapons will be withdrawn and training will be discontinued. It also prohibits the deployment of intermediate-range missiles and nuclear weapons from abroad.
U.S. and NATO officials have already ruled out some of Russia’s proposals, but some, including discussions on arms control and increased transparency in military operations, may serve as a starting point for negotiations, they said. Said.
What do Western forces want?
First and foremost, Western nations want signs of a previously unrealized escalation from Moscow.
Blinken said on Friday that Russia plans to gather nearly 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and “mobilize twice that number in a very short order.”
Other than that, US authorities are more cautious about the details of the request to Moscow. Government officials said they would provide a detailed “laydown” of concerns at the right time, but refused to identify either what the United States wanted to achieve or what it refused from Russia’s official demands.
How likely is a diplomatic breakthrough?
A large breakthrough is not impossible, but very unlikely. The pace of dialogue can be gradual and fragmented, as these are complex issues that are being discussed in multiple places by different stakeholders. Russian and American officials gave a pessimistic outlook over the weekend.
In a statement after Friday’s foreign ministers’ meeting, NATO’s Stoltenberg said the alliance would take a “dual-track” approach to Moscow, prioritizing dialogue and political resolution, while “diplomatic will fail.”
President Blinken said on Sunday that the United States is “committed to dialogue and diplomacy,” but if it pursues a conflict, the United States will deal “very resolutely” with Russia.
So what does this all mean about potential intrusions?
That means that the risk of intrusion is still realistic and serious. Russia has shown no signs of withdrawing its troops since its accumulation began. US defense and intelligence officials said Russian troops were preparing for a rapid and large-scale aggression.
Stoltenberg emphasized on Friday that Russia’s military buildup “did not stop.”
“We see armored forces, artillery, and armies ready for combat. We see electronic warfare equipment, and the various military forces that are gradually accumulating in and around Ukraine,” he said. Said. “Of course, the ability, rhetoric, and track record of sending the message that there is a real risk of new armed conflict in Europe.”
“”[T]o Really making progress, when Russia has a gun at the Ukrainian leaders, it’s very hard to see it happening when there is an ongoing escalation, “Blinken said on Sunday.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: What You Need to Know About the Situation of Diplomatic Negotiations with the United States and NATO
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