Putin is not yet ready to end the Ukrainian war.We have to prepare when he is | Jonathan Powell


We has set a completely wrong choice for Ukraine, and pursuing it could unnecessarily undermine European integration.last week vote The Council on Foreign Relations has shown that two camps have emerged in European public opinion. One is a large peace camp (35%) that wants to reduce and operate now, and the other is a small judicial camp (25%) that wants to move forward to victory. In fact, if you look at the details, there are three groups, with the largest single group (43%) choosing both peace and justice.

This gap between peace and justice is reflected in the public debate. An extreme example is Henry Kissinger. Discuss in Davos Ukraine should recognize its territory now to secure a ceasefire and warn Vladimir Putin not to humiliate him. Not surprisingly, this has sparked a keen reaction from those who correctly point out that Putin is not showing any signs of being seriously ready to negotiate or respond to concessions. Perhaps the first strike will not only fail to secure lasting peace, but will remain in a position to return to Ukraine and grab more after Putin reorganizes his army.

Like other extreme, passionate Ukrainian supporters Anne Applebaum When Timothy Snyder All negotiations are appeasement and I believe Ukraine must oppose Russia until a complete victory is achieved. Conveniently, they don’t really define what a victory is. Is it returning Russia to the February 23 route? Or entirely from Ukrainian territory? Does Ukraine need to continue fighting until Russian troops are permanently disabled and Putin is not seated?

In this discussion, we do not seem to have learned any lessons of our history. Conditions can only be imposed on a country if it invades and conquers it, as did its allies in Germany in 1945. Otherwise, even the “winner” needs to negotiate, as in Versailles in 1919. Ukraine Invading Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky has the right to argue that the war must end with a negotiated settlement. Russia continues to exist as a neighbor of Ukraine and still has a much larger army. There is lasting peace only if we leave Russia to complain, be isolated and do not wait for the next opportunity for aggression.

There is always a tension between peace and justice when trying to resolve conflicts. If Colombian President Santo Skalderon wanted peace from Falk’s leaders in 2012, but they said they had to go to jail for 30 years, it’s no wonder they weren’t interested in the negotiations. Similarly, it would have been wrong to accept a full amnesty after the 50-year war. And left the victims unsatisfied. Instead, Santos set up a system of transitional justice to achieve a balance between peace and justice, giving past victims the closure they deserve, and confirming that there are no new victims in the future. There must be the same balance between Ukrainian peace and justice.

Basically, this argument loses sight of the essential fact that Ukrainians, not us, are fighting. We could have come to their defense as we did in Poland in 1939 (too late), Kuwait in 1991, or Kosovo in 1999. But we chose not to do so. Therefore, only Ukrainians have the right to decide when to negotiate and what concessions to make.They are they 2014 Minsk.. Also, they must not be pressured by endless warfare.

Putin is not yet ready for serious negotiations. But depending on the calculus after the Battle of Donbas, he may be ready, so we need to be ready. He was able to declare a ceasefire, As he did in 2014, Hold the territory he has acquired. It leaves Ukraine with another frozen conflict, which Putin takes advantage of to prevent the country from going on the road to the future of Europe. Such a ceasefire would be a trap. Ukraine may need to insist on fighting and discussion at the same time to ensure a satisfactory agreement. It should be supported in those negotiations by allies who hold the key to sanctions and security to prevent Russia from invading again. As other negotiation processes have done, we now have to act to form a group of Ukrainian friends to provide that support.

The greatest guarantee of Ukraine’s safe future is in the hands of the EU.If Ukraine is now offered a candidate status and a clear path to membership, it will be much more difficult, even if long. Russia Invade again. This will also give the Ukrainian government the tools and incentives needed to radically reform the system still dominated by the corrupt Soviet-era heritage of oligarchy and kleptocracy. It’s difficult for the EU, who is familiar with the past mistakes of accepting a country that is too early. But it knows that Ukraine is a special case.

We also need to expand our current negotiation agenda. Early negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were overloaded with Russia’s demands in terms of territorial and Ukrainian neutrality. The new agenda needs to be balanced with Ukraine’s priorities. Awareness of the justice of the crimes committed, the reconstruction of the country and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The territorial issue is, after all, a zero-sum game. You need to increase the pie to find a way to make the trade-off possible. It requires broader negotiations on the future of European security, including new conventional military agreements and new relations between NATO and Russia.

The dangerous false dichotomy we now set for ourselves between Ukrainian peace and justice will fall into Putin’s hands. The unity shown so far has brought new life to the EU and NATO. We shouldn’t jeopardize it. If we want this to be the last European war, we must focus on setting up a table for the right kind of negotiation, rather than unnecessarily discussing how ready we are to eat. not.

  • Jonathan Powell was Tony Blair’s chief negotiator in Northern Ireland during his time as Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister from 1997 to 2007, and InterMediate, a charity dedicated to helping end armed conflict. Chief Executive Officer and Founder of.

Putin is not yet ready to end the Ukrainian war.We have to prepare when he is | Jonathan Powell

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