Humans are not just making Earth Warmer, they are chaotic in the climate, a whole new study suggests.
A new study posted to the preprint database on April 21 arXiv (Opens in a new tab)Outlines the overall potential impact of human activity on climate. And the picture is not beautiful.
This study does not provide a complete simulation of the climate model, but if not reduced, it does give a rough sketch of the direction we are heading. Climate change Our unchecked use of fossil fuels, according to the author of the study, physics and astronomy scientists at the University of Porto, Portugal. ..
“The effects of climate change (droughts, heat waves, extreme phenomena, etc.) are well known,” researcher Orfeu Bertollami told Live Science in an email. “If the Earth system enters the realm of chaotic behavior, we will somehow lose all hope of solving the problem.”
The Earth regularly undergoes major changes in climate patterns, moving from one stable equilibrium to another. These changes are usually caused by external factors such as changes in the Earth’s orbit and large-scale spikes in volcanic activity. But past research suggests that we are now entering a new stage driven by human activity.As humans use more pumps carbon In the atmosphere, we are creating a new Anthropocene era, an era of human-influenced climate systems. This is something our planet has never experienced.
In a new study, researchers modeled the introduction of the Anthropocene as a phase transition. Most people are familiar with the phase transition of materials, for example when ice melts in water and undergoes a phase transition from solid to liquid, or when water evaporates into a gas. However, phase transitions also occur in other systems. In this case, the system is the climate of the earth.Given climate provides regular and predictable season And the weather, and the phase transitions of climate, lead to new patterns of seasons and weather. As the climate undergoes a phase transition, this means that the Earth is undergoing sudden and rapid changes in patterns.
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If human activity is causing a phase transition in the Earth’s climate, it means that we are causing the planet to develop a new set of meteorological patterns. What these patterns look like is one of the most pressing issues in climate science.
Where is the Earth’s climate heading? It depends a lot on exactly what our activities are in the coming decades. For example, significant reductions in carbon emissions can have different results than if nothing was changed, the researchers say in the study.
To explain the different trajectories and choices that humanity can make, researchers Math A tool called logistic mapping. Logistic maps are great for explaining situations where variables such as carbon content in the atmosphere can increase, but naturally reach their limits. For example, scientists often use logistic maps to describe animal populations. Animals can continue to give birth and increase in number, but they reach their limits when they consume all the food in the environment (or predators become too hungry to consume).
Our environmental impact is steadily increasing and has been going on for over a century. But, according to researchers, it will naturally reach its limits. For example, the human population can only be very large and can have very much carbon release activity. And pollution will ultimately worsen the environment. At some point in the future, carbon emissions have reached an upper limit, and researchers have found that logistic maps can capture the future trajectory of carbon emissions very well.
Everything is chaotic
Researchers have investigated different ways in which human logistic maps evolve, depending on factors such as population, the introduction of carbon reduction strategies, and better and more efficient techniques. Once we found out how human carbon emissions evolve over time, we used it to investigate how the Earth’s climate evolves through human-driven phase transitions.
At best, when humanity reaches the limit of carbon emissions, the Earth’s climate stabilizes at new, higher average temperatures. This higher temperature is generally bad for humans as it still leads to higher sea levels and more extreme meteorological phenomena. But at least it’s stable. The Anthropocene looks like an era of previous climates, but it is only warm and still has regular and repeatable weather patterns.
But in the worst case, researchers have found that the Earth’s climate can lead to turmoil. True mathematical chaos. In a chaotic system, there is no equilibrium or reproducible pattern. The chaotic climate has seasons that change significantly from 10 to 10 years (or year to year). One year you will experience a sudden flash of extreme weather, while the other will be completely quiet. Even the average temperature of the earth can fluctuate significantly from cool to hot in a relatively short period of time. It is completely impossible to determine in which direction the Earth’s climate is heading.
“Chaotic behavior means that it is impossible to predict future behavior of the Earth system, even if we know the current state of the Earth system very reliably,” Bertramie said. .. “It means that we lose the ability to control the Earth’s system and propel it towards an equilibrium that supports the habitability of the biosphere.”
Most worrisome is the discovery that above certain critical threshold temperatures in the Earth’s atmosphere, feedback cycles can begin and chaotic consequences can be unavoidable. There are some signs that it may already be past that turning point, but it’s never too late to avoid a climate disaster.
Originally published in Live Science..
Physicists predict that the Earth will become a chaotic world with dire consequences
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