“Pandemic vs Endemic” sets up two conflicting Covid endgames


His WHO boss said last weekend after the World Health Organization’s European regional director expressed hope that the continent could move to a “late pandemic.” Moved swiftly to downplay such optimism.

Secretary Tedros Adhanom Gebreez said the next day, claiming that Hans Kluge’s remarks were “dangerous to assume.” .. .. We are at the end of the coronavirus, while WHO Europe emphasizes that the pandemic is not over yet.

The confusing message cuts into the heart of the debate that was even bubbling before. Omicron variants have caused a surge in global infections: At what point does the world move from a pandemic?

Various locations can be crystallized as “pandemic anti-endemic”. On the one hand, as evidence that the pathogen has not been overcome, there is the scientific community looking at the ongoing threat from the global vaccination coverage of mutants and patches.

The other, often a politician, wants the virus, which has been hanging like a millstone on the neck of the world for two years, to be treated like any other problematic illness. It’s a threat, but you can manage it.

Pedro Sanchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, said this month, “We are Endemic rIt’s not a pandemic, it’s up to now. However, few health professionals find the path to fashion easy.

In some countries, including the United Kingdom, Covid’s restrictions are now lifted to restore normal conditions © Justin Tallis / AFP via Getty Images

“Many politicians don’t know what endemic means,” said Tim Colborn, a professor of global health epidemiology at the University College of London, even though “sometimes we say the worst is over.” rice field.

“That doesn’t mean it’s less severe,” he said. “Endemic usually means a steady state without big peaks, so we’re not really there yet. It’s possible for politicians to say so and claim that they’re thinking hopefully. I can do it.”

Marc Vann Lanst, a professor of virology at the University of Ruben, admitted that endemic is a broad, undefined and often misunderstood term, but the world is in such a place. It was too early to say that it had arrived.

“As long as Omicron still exists in such numbers and causes large-scale illnesses, it is relatively mild and as long as this puts a strain on the medical sector … This is called the” endemic situation. ” You can and shouldn’t call it. Not yet, “he said.

Nevertheless, countries including Denmark and the United Kingdom have moved to lift Covid’s restrictions. Efforts to return to normal, The pressure in the hospital remained low.

Graph showing that the Danish government has lifted all Covid restrictions as the case deviates from the more serious consequences of the Omicron wave.

Denmark has lifted the restriction, driven by the Omicron subtype BA, despite a surge in infection rates. 2. Health officials estimate that it is 50 percent more contagious than the original Omicron. The end of this week’s measures in the UK coincided with the suspension of the sharp decline in proceedings this year.

Even Thailand, which had been pursuing the Zero-COVID policy until last summer, should treat the virus as endemic on Friday as health officials have outlined guidelines for starting treatment like the flu virus within six months to a year. We have taken a tentative step towards.

David Hayman, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the virus has been effective as an endemic since the summer in the United Kingdom, where vaccines and herd immunity to previous infections exceeded 95%. Said he was being treated.

“They have transferred risk assessments from government to individuals. They have provided rapid diagnostic tests that we can use or that we can wear masks,” he said.

Experts also point out that just because the disease is endemic does not mean it is not fatal — tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV / AIDS are all endemic, with millions of people. I killed you. On the other side of the scale, everyday illnesses such as influenza are also classified as endemic.

Covid is a graph showing a gradual decrease in lethality during the pandemic process, primarily due to immunity, but remains more dangerous than influenza on average.

“Endemic … It’s just a disease and will continue to infect until it’s settled in a population of humans and measures are taken to stop it,” Hayman said. “Tuberculosis is endemic and HIV is endemic. All these infectious diseases from the animal world are endemic.”

Although Omicron appears to be less toxic, it has significantly improved transmission rates compared to previous variants, which increases the number of hospitalizations that Omicron can cause, especially among unvaccinated patients. The challenge is that there are so many.

The mere fact that it spread very rapidly can also accelerate the emergence of new nasty variants, WHO and others warn.

WHO, which began using the term pandemic in March 2020, is exploring ways to move from an acute pandemic response to long-term, sustained Covid-19 infection control. However, because the mission of health agencies is global, guidance needs to take into account the situation not only in some countries, but around the world.

Denmark has lifted the restriction despite the surge in infection rates caused by the Omicron subtype BA. 2 © via REUTERS

François Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, said that the root of the problem is an understandable desire for people to come back to life. So it’s no wonder that many elected officials were keen to deliver the good news that voters longed for.

“There was a pattern that exceeded expectations … We all have sinned about it because we want to believe in things,” he said.

Nelson Lee, a professor of public health at the University of Toronto, predicts that Covid will not become a “constant community illness”, but will surge once or twice a year, similar to the behavior of the flu virus. did.

“It will be like an epidemic. It will come and go in response to the evolution of the virus and the combined immunity of the population,” he said.

No matter how the coronavirus outbreaks, scientists have agreed that the final stage will come. “It’s very important to give the idea that there is light at the end of the tunnel and the pandemic will not last forever,” Barrow said.

“Pandemic vs Endemic” sets up two conflicting Covid endgames

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The post “Pandemic vs Endemic” sets up two conflicting Covid endgames appeared first on Eminetra.


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