Global dementia cases set to triple by 2050 unless countries address risk factors


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The number of adults (aged 40 and over) suffering from dementia worldwide has nearly 3 from an estimated 57 million in 2019 to 153 million in 2050, mainly due to population growth and aging populations. Expected to double. The Global Disease Burden Study is the first study to provide predicted estimates for 204 countries around the world. Lancet Public Health..

In this study, four risk factors for dementia: smoking, obesity, Hyperglycemia, And low education-and emphasize the impact they have on future trends. For example, improved access to global education is projected to reduce the prevalence of dementia by 6 million worldwide by 2050. However, this is counteracted by the expected tendencies of obesity, hyperglycemia, and smoking, with an additional 6 million cases of dementia.

The authors have conducted studies to discover new modifiable risk factors for effective disease-modifying treatments and reducing the burden of future diseases, as well as locally coordinated interventions to reduce exposure to risk factors. It emphasizes the urgent need to deploy.Scale up to the same level as at the national level and become a policymaker Public health expert Based on the best data available, new insights to understand the impetus for these increases, “said Emma Nichols, lead author of the Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) at the University of Washington, USA. Governments need to make resources and support available to individuals, caregivers, and healthcare systems around the world. “

She continues. “At the same time, we need to focus more on the prevention and management of risk factors before we develop dementia. Even the slightest progress in preventing or delaying the progression of dementia has surprising benefits. To give, this means expanding community-friendly, low-cost programs that, in most cases, support healthier diets, more exercise, quitting, and better access to education. It also means continuing to invest. In research to identify effective treatments to stop, delay or prevent dementia. “

Dementia is currently the seventh leading cause of death in the world and one of the leading causes of disability and dependence in the elderly worldwide, with estimated global costs of over US $ 1 trillion in 2019. ..Dementia mainly affects senior citizen, It is not an inevitable result of aging. Announced in 2020, the Lancet Committee has 12 known risk factors: low education, high blood pressure, hearing loss, smoking, middle-aged obesity, depression, lack of exercise, diabetes, social isolation, and excessive alcohol intake. , Head injury, and air pollution.

The study found the largest increase in prevalence in eastern sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people with dementia is expected to increase from nearly 660,000 in 2019 to more than 3 million in 2050. I predict that. According to population growth, Djibouti (473%), Ethiopia (443%) and South Sudan (396%) have the largest increases. Similarly, in North Africa and the Middle East, the number of cases is projected to increase by 367%, from nearly 3 million to about 14 million. In particular, there is a significant increase in Qatar (1926%), United Arab Emirates (1795%) and Bahrain. (1084%; Table 1).

In contrast, the smallest increase in the number of cases of dementia is predicted in the high-income Asia-Pacific region, with cases increasing by 53% from 4 million in 2019 to 7 million in 2050. It is predicted. Especially in Japan, there is a slight increase (27%). The region is expected to have a lower risk of dementia by age group, suggesting that preventative measures such as education and improved healthy lifestyles are having an impact.

Similarly, in Western Europe, the number of cases of dementia is expected to increase by 74% from about 8 million in 2019 to about 14 million in 2050 (Table 1). In Greece (45%), Italy (56%), Finland (58%), Sweden (62%), and Germany (65%), a relatively small increase in cases is expected. In the UK, the number of cases of dementia is projected to increase by 75%, from just over 970,000 in 2019 to about 1.6 million in 2050.

Globally, more women than men are affected by dementia. In 2019, women with dementia outnumbered men with dementia by 100-69. This pattern is expected to continue into 2050. “It’s not because women tend to live longer,” said Dr. Jamie Steinmetz, co-author of the University of Washington IHME. , We. “There is evidence of gender differences in the underlying biological mechanisms of dementia. Alzheimer’s disease can spread differently in the male and female brains, and several genetic risk factors are associated with gender disease risk. Seems to be doing. “

According to Professor TheoVos, a co-author of IHME at the University of Washington, “especially low- and middle-income countries have national policies that can reduce risk factors for future dementia, such as prioritizing education and healthy lifestyles. It needs to be implemented now, addressing structural inequality in access to health and social care services and ensuring that services are more adaptable to the unprecedented needs of growing elderly people with complex care needs. Requires considerable planning at both the local and national levels. “

The authors limit their analysis by the lack of high-quality data in some parts of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central America, and studies using different methodologies and definitions of dementia. I admit that it was done. They also state that they were unable to consider all 12 risk factors from the 2020 Lancet Commission report. Because they were limited to the risk factors included in the GBD study, they contained only the risk factors with strong relevant evidence. However, inclusion of additional risk factors does not necessarily lead to predicted changes in prevalence unless changes in exposure to specific risk factors are also expected.Finally, they found that this study investigated the overall prevalence of dementia, and that clinical subtypes such as vascular dementia Risk factor, May affect the result.

In a linked comment, Dr. Michaelël Schwarzinger and Dr. Carole Dufouil (who were not involved in the study) at the University Hospital of Bordeaux, France, said: The underlying mechanism that causes dementia …[they] It provides apocalyptic predictions that do not take into account the recommended changes in lifestyle over a lifetime.There is a considerable and urgent need to strengthen public health approaches towards dementia To better inform people and decision makers about the appropriate means of delaying or avoiding these dire predictions. “

Countries with the highest rate of change in the total number of dementia cases from 2019 to 50

1) Qatar (1926%)
2) United Arab Emirates (1795%)
3) Bahrain (1084%)
4) Oman (943%)
5) Saudi Arabia (898%)
6) Kuwait (850%)
7) Iraq (559%)
8) Maldives (554%)
9) Jordan (522%)
10) Equatorial Guinea (498%)

Countries with the lowest rate of change in the total number of dementia cases in 2019-50

1) Japan (27%)
2) Bulgaria (37%)
3) Serbia (38%)
4) Lithuania (44%)
5) Greece (45%)
6) Latvia (47%)
7) Croatia (55%)
8) Ukraine (55%)
9) Italy (56%)
10) Finland (58%)

People who are failing globally with dementia: WHO

For more information:
Estimates of Global Prevalence of Dementia in 2019 and Predicted Prevalence in 2050: Analysis of the 2019 Global Disease Burden Study, Lancet Public Health (2022). DOI: 10.1016 / S2468-2667 (21) 00249-8 ,… (21) 00249-8 / fulltext

Quote: Unless countries address risk factors (January 6, 2022), cases of dementia worldwide will be tripled by 2050.

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