Fearing Covid’s prolongation, he hoped the U.S. employment surge would disappear

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For months, economists predicted that Americans would return to the workforce all at once in September. vaccination Increased school Resume And federal unemployment allowance Expired..

However, those predictions were overturned in the following cases: Only 194,000 Of the 500,000 jobs expected to be created last month, it was the lowest since the beginning of the year, despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.8%, but the lowest since the pandemic began.

The economist undulation Covid-19 is driven by a more contagious delta variant to overturn expectations of a labor market revival and maintain a wider return to normal.

“I have the déjà vu that economists are always too optimistic about when the labor market will rise and when they see these workers flooding the workforce,” said senior Daniel.・ Jao said. An economist at the job site Glassdoor, an online job board.

“To some extent, I think there’s a good reason why it didn’t happen,” he added. “Even if school resumed, we shouldn’t have expected the predictions to be accurate in the context of the delta variant, as the delta variant peaked in September.”

Even with the surge in employment growth earlier this year, the total percentage of Americans in the workforce has remained relatively unchanged since the first blockade began to be lifted last year.

This trend continued in September, with a labor force participation rate of 61.6%, which has remained in the same narrow range as it has been stagnant since June 2020.

Despite the desperate employment of many large employers, the proliferation of Delta-led infectious diseases has reduced job hunting.Especially retailers Enthusiastic They’ve added jobs and raised wages ahead of the holiday season, but September data show that some Americans are still hesitant, despite the high number of job openings.

The Labor Department reported: 1.6m The American said he wasn’t looking for a job because of the pandemic. 107,000 more than in August, the increase since January.

The 309,000 women who quit or looked for a job last month accounted for the majority of the labor force dropouts, probably due to their long-term care responsibilities as Delta’s surge. Suspension Some schools are reopening nationwide.

“In most cases, a binding factor in the labor market is worker demand. [and] Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said:

“What we saw during the pandemic was a high unemployment rate and a shortage of labor. You have never seen it before.”

President Joe Biden also blamed the pandemic in a speech from the White House on Friday, saying the employment report did not give an accurate picture of the current labor market.

Line graph of shortage of non-farm payrolls since early 2020.  m indicates a stagnation in US employment recovery in September.

“Today’s report is based on a survey conducted during the week of September 13. Not today, but on September 13, Covid had an average of over 150,000 cases per day,” he said. Said. “Since then, we have seen more than a third of our daily cases decrease, they continue to decline, and we continue to make progress.”

Biden also advertised a lower than expected unemployment rate last month. But it wasn’t entirely due to the unemployed workers finding a job. The total number of workers has decreased, reducing the denominator of the equations economists use to calculate the unemployment rate.

Mismatch is due to changes in the employment market brought about by PandemicBecause the risk of infection changed the calculation of whether low-wage face-to-face work for workers is worthwhile.

Those same jobs are also most sensitive to the public health crisis and are often eliminated or temporarily dismissed as the number of cases increases. According to Mr. Zhao of Glassdoor, the service industry employs tens of thousands less than before the pandemic, despite extensive hiring efforts by employers, and will never pull back a large number of workers. I said I would.

An analysis by the Financial Times also primarily showed the end of an enhanced federal unemployment allowance intended to help those fired for a pandemic. We’re screwed Returning 7.5 million workers who receive $ 300 a week to the employment market.

As the number of infectious diseases and hospitalizations begins to decline, some economists expect the expected fall rebound to still occur, albeit later than expected. They agree that recovery depends on the Covid crisis.

“This year was one of the false dawns for the labor market,” said Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed’s employment site. “Workers are in high demand and millions want to get back to work, but employment growth has yet to find a foothold.”

Fearing Covid’s prolongation, he hoped the U.S. employment surge would disappear

Source link Fearing Covid’s prolongation, he hoped the U.S. employment surge would disappear

The post Fearing Covid’s prolongation, he hoped the U.S. employment surge would disappear appeared first on Eminetra.

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