Automakers are no longer struggling to compete with Tesla in electric vehicle technology, but are also struggling to get closer to production.
For years, the major automakers that make millions of combustion engine vehicles a year believe they can establish battery technology and rapidly expand EV production as soon as enough consumers show interest. Was being done.
However, forecasts for the six heavy-duty vehicle groups by 2024 show that: Volkswagen is the only legacy car maker It is on track to overtake Tesla in EV production. Bernstein, IHS, and EV-Volumes.com predict that other cars will sell more EVs rapidly, but nothing can match Tesla.
Last month, Elon Musk boasted that Tesla’s vehicle production has increased by an average of 71% annually over the last 50 years. “I’m confident that we can maintain something like this for at least 50% for a considerable period of time,” he said.
EVs are a niche, but a growing product. They accounted for only 3% of the global passenger market in 2020, and Tesla delivered about 500,000 vehicles. However, according to EV-Volumes.com, it is expected to account for 11.4% of the global market this quarter, with Tesla producing at a rate equivalent to about 1 million units annually. A factory near Berlin is online.
Between 2017 and 2020, Ford’s electric vehicle production was less than 2% of Tesla. This year, thanks to the Mustang Mach-E, its volume has swelled. According to Bernstein, the production rate in 2021 will be 83,000, or 10 percent of Tesla. Ford raised its forecast this week and announced that it will produce 600,000 EVs a year by the end of 2023. This is only half of Tesla’s projected production. However, Bernstein predicts that this number will be in short supply and approach 450,000.
Meanwhile, as Ford CEO Jim Farley told employees this month, the Tesla Model 3 is currently the best-selling car in both Europe and the UK. “It’s not electricity. Flat out,” he said. “If we are going to succeed, we can’t ignore this competition anymore.”
To fill the gap, Ford invested in Rivian, an electric vehicle startup, and held a 12.1 percent stake in the company. Since it was released last week.. Previously, Ford had proposed plans to build vehicles using Rivian technology.But in the interview Posted in Automotive News on FridayFarley said it wouldn’t happen anymore.
He told the magazine: “Today, compared to when we first invested, we are more certain about our capabilities, the direction of the brand in both cases, and now we have to do. . “
Volkswagen’s Herbert Diess is the only incumbent CEO who takes Tesla seriously as a rival. In 2017, as head of the VW brand, he set out plans to “leap” Tesla by 2025.
However VW’s progress is mixed.. Bernstein predicts that the group will sell 450,000 EVs this year, below its initial target of 600,000, partly due to a shortage of semiconductors that haven’t hit Tesla so much.
“This year isn’t the end of the world, but it’s not a reason to celebrate,” said Bernstein’s Arndt Ellinghorst, who hopes the VW Group will outsell Tesla on EVs by early 2024.
For the world’s leading luxury car makers in BMW and Mercedes volume, total EV production is one-fifth that of this year’s Tesla, despite Mercedes launching its flagship electric S-class equivalent, the EQS. Is less than.
Part of that delay may be reluctant to phase out production of high-margin combustion engine vehicles prematurely.Earlier this year, Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler said gasoline and diesel models It was an “automated teller machine” It helps to fund the transition to cleaner transportation.
BMW also questioned the projected growth of the electric vehicle market and emphasized its ability to generate cash and maintain profit margins by taking a more cautious approach.
But Dís admits that Tesla “sets standards” for production. In ongoing dispute with VW’s strong union, he pointed out that Tesla now needs 30 hours to build its ID, while Tesla builds a car in 10 hours. 3 and ID. 4 models.
Viktor Irle, Director of EV-Volumes.com, said:
Irle also recognizes Tesla for its simple production lineup. There were only four models in Tesla’s portfolio, and most of the year, the S and X were updated, so only models Y and 3 were mass-produced. In contrast, VW has more than 20 EVs on the market.
Irle isn’t optimistic about whether others can catch up with Tesla in the near future. “Tesla is growing a bit slower, but it’s still growing more in terms of volume,” he said. “No one will surpass Tesla in sales volume by 2026.”
Additional Report by Dave Lee of San Francisco
Big car makers struggle to get in touch with Tesla’s production forecasts
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