2022 NFL Divisional Round Betting: Tips To Consider

Date:

The NFL Divisional Round is Set!

Once the postseason starts, the NFL lines become even sharper since the sportsbooks and oddsmakers have an entire season of data to go off of.

The playoff field has been cut from 14 teams down to 8 teams, and looking at each matchup, any of these teams has a great chance to make it into the Conference Championship game.

#4 Cincinnati Bengals Vs #1 Tennessee Titans

Saturday, January 22nd, 4:30 p.m ET (CBS)

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee 

#6 San Francisco 49ers Vs #1 Green Bay Packers

Saturday, January 22nd, 8:15 p.m ET (FOX)

Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

#4 Los Angeles Rams Vs #2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, January 23rd, 3:00 p.m ET (NBC)

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida 

#3 Buffalo Bills Vs #2 Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 23rd, 6:30 p.m ET (CBS)

Arrow Head Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri 

NFL Divisional Round Betting: 5 Tips To Consider In Each Game

#4 Cincinnati Bengals @  #1 Tennessee Titans

The cinderella season continues for the Cincinnati Bengals. After getting their first playoff win since 1991, the Bengals look to take on the #1 Seed Tennessee Titans. Both teams are built very similarly. Both offenses can be explosive, but often, their defense has a hard time stopping opponents from moving the ball and scoring. Both teams are below average in season-long DVOA. Per Football Outsiders, neither team finished top 10 in rushing offense or defense, nor passing offense or defense.

Tennessee gets their workhorse running back just in time for their first playoff games of the 2022 postseason. Derrick Henry is expected to play, and with the Bengals missing some key pieces on their defensive line, I expect Henry to impact immediately.

Between these two offenses, I expect to see some fireworks. Having Henry back helps the Titans in the passing game as it does the running game.

The Bengals are sixth in the league in the rate of Offensive plays to gain 20 or more yards while leading the NFL in touchdowns scored from outside the red zone (21), per Warren Sharp.

#6 San Francisco 49ers @  #1 Green Bay Packers 

The 49ers knocked off the Dallas Cowboys last week, in which they dominated from start to finish. If they want to continue their success, they will need defensive players Nock Bosa and Fred Warner healthy for their matchup against Green Bay. Both Bosa and Warner were hurt in last week’s game and did not return to the game. Their status for this week is still up in the air.

The 49ers are 3-1 in the playoffs and 17-9 against the spread as a road underdog under Kyle Shanahan. They will need to continue that road/underdog energy as they head to Green Bay, a 6-point dog. The Packers were the only team in the NFL this season to go undefeated at home with a +111 point differential while playing at Lambeau Field, which was 3rd in the league.

Aaron Rodgers turned in another MVP-worthy season as Green Bay locked up the #1 seed for the 2nd straight year. Despite the 49ers being the sixth seed, they match up well against Green Bay. Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league; they ranked 29th in both Expected Points Added (EPA) per Rush and Rush Success Rate on early downs. We all know Kyle Shanahan and the 9ers love to run the ball. I expect Shanahan to continue to run the ball behind Elijah Mitchell and the newly found secret weapon Deebo Samuel.

#4 Los Angeles Rams @  #2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Throughout the offseason and the regular season, the Rams went all in to win the Super Bowl. Before the season started, they traded for veteran Matt Stafford and then during the regular season, they had Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. So far, so good!

Coming off a blowout win, the Rams get their shot at taking down the defending Super Bowl Champs. They beat these same Tampa Bay Buccaneers once already this season, winning 34-24 back in week 3.

Aaron Donald and the line defense gave Tom Brady and the Bucs major problems in their week 3 matchup. Compared to just 19 in his other 16 games, Brady was three times. Both Von Miller and Aaron Donald will have to duplicate that to send the defending champions home.

As for the Buccaneers, they will need to take advantage of the Rams banged-up secondary if they want to repeat. Despite being 44 years old, this Bucs team will have to lean on Tom Brady’s arm. Led by Brady, the Bucs finished the season with the best offense in the NFL by Football Outsider DVOA. They also ranked #2 on first downs, #3 on seconds downs, and #1 in late downs. Not to mention that Brady led the league in passing yards and touchdowns.

#3 Buffalo Bills Vs #2 Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs are looking to punch their ticket to their fourth straight AFC Championship appearance. Not only are they going for a fourth straight AFC Championship game, but they are looking to get back to the Super for the third straight year.

The final game of the Divisional Round is arguably the most universally anticipated game of the week. Both the Bills and Chiefs enter this game, scoring a combined 13 offensive touchdowns in the Wild Card Round.

The Bills demolished the Chiefs 38-20 in Week 5, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 2nd quarter, and ultimately sealed the game with a pick-six late in the 3rd quarter. Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns and rushed for another.

In week 5, the Chiefs were going through some issues and have since returned to form. In the Wild Card Round, Kansas City has won 9 of their last 10 games and is coming off a dominant performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Per Warren Sharp, This game features the top team in points per drive in Kansas City (2.71) and the fourth-ranked team in Buffalo (2.56). The Chiefs are first in EPA per play (0.140), while the Bills are fourth (.091). Kansas City is first in success rate per play (51.1%) while the Bills are fourth (47.4%). The Chiefs have punted on 25.5% of their drives (first) while the Bills just 29.7% (third).

Divisional Round Betting Odds

#4 Cincinnati Bengals Vs #1 Tennessee Titans

Saturday, January 22nd, 4:30 p.m ET (CBS)

Line: Titans -3.5

Total: 47

Despite Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals playing great, I think the Tennessee Titans overpower the Bengals and roll to an easy victory.

Cincinnati benefited from playing a very soft schedule. The offense hasn’t been as reliable against good defenses, and the defense has struggled against strong attacks

With King Henry back, plus a rested and healthy A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, the Titans are just that, a strong offensive team. The Titans ranked sixth in a rush DVOA with Henry compared to 24th without him, and he opens the play-action, making the passing game that much better.

Pick: Titans -3.5

#6 San Francisco 49ers Vs #1 Green Bay Packers

Saturday, January 22nd, 8:15 p.m ET (FOX)

Line: Packers -6

Total: 47

This line opened at -4, but due to injury concern for San Francisco, the line spiked up to Packers -6. With a shoulder injury and defensive stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, Jimmy G is questionable.

Despite the injury concerns, I think the 49ers have value at +6. Even if Jimmy G cannot play, I believe Trey Lance can step in and lead this team to an upset win as long as Kyle Shanahan continues to run the ball.

Pick: 49ers +6 

#4 Los Angeles Rams Vs #2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, January 23rd, 3:00 p.m ET (NBC)

Line: Buccaneers -3

Total: 48.5

The Rams have already defeated Tampa Bay once. That doesn’t guarantee they can do it again, but they have the receipt in their hand, and it will be hard to mess it up. Stafford leads the league in interceptions, but he can’t turn over the ball if he and the Rams have any shot at winning this game.

The Ram’s secondary is a little thing and banged up, but the Buccaneers have also lost a few playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Chris Godwin is out for the year, Leonard Fournette is questionable, and we all saw what happened to Antonio Brown a few weeks ago.

If the Rams can pressure Tom Brady, they can win this game.

Pick: Rams +3 or Over 48.5 

#3 Buffalo Bills Vs #2 Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 23rd, 6:30 p.m ET (CBS)

Line: Chiefs -1.5

Total: 55 

This is the game the Buffalo Bills have been waiting for. After losing to the Chiefs last year in the postseason, they went out and retooled in the offseason to get revenge on Kansas City. Here’s their chance.

Buffalo is coming off an impressive win against the New England Patriots, but these defenses are trending in opposite directions. The Bills run defense ranks 16th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA over the last eight weeks, and the overall defense has been more great than elite. As for the Chiefs’ defense, it is night and day from that early matchup. They rank 10th in DVOA over the past eight weeks, top-11 against both the run and the pass, after an ugly 31st during the first 10 weeks.

The oddsmakers think this game will be close, as do I. When a game has the chance to be this close, I like to back the better coach and quarterback. Both Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have much more experience in the postseason and high-pressure games.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 

Top NFL Sportsbooks for Divisional Round

Below are the top online sportsbooks for NFL betting. Each Online sportsbook offers unique bonuses and promotions. Be sure to check them out and shop for the best lines for the Divisional Round.

  1. BetUS – 125% Deposit Bonus up $2,500
  2. Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus to New Bettors
  3. MyBookie – 100% Deposit Bonus up to $1,000
  4. BetOnline – 50% up to $1,000 Welcome Bonus to New Bettors

Kurt Blakeway – Sporting Betting Analyst

Kurt is a Sports Betting Analyst for Safest Betting Sites. He enjoys all things MLB, NFL, CFB, and CBB. While he is a fan first, he is always trying to gain an edge on the books to make a little bit of money.

The post 2022 NFL Divisional Round Betting: Tips To Consider appeared first on California News Times.

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